Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Mon Oct 12 23:22:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By extreme priors I mean e.g. "everybody is 100% protected for life" or "there is virtually no immune protection". The presence of some re-infections (but the absence of *common* ones) is enough to rule those out. Those don't seem like they were good priors to begin with, though! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I suppose I find most of the conversations about COVID re-infections or lack thereof to not be very illuminating, because unless your priors were pretty extreme I'm not sure how much they should be moved by seemingly credible but sporadic cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know what the experts on here think of the methods, but this study from Qatar seemed interesting in trying to measure the rate of re-infections in a more systematic way, finding they were possible but rare at several months out. https://t.co/ilXloKZVzZ https://t.co/sWQcMO0yXD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated