Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Mon Oct 12 15:22:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In practice, few pollsters use probabilistic turnout weights. And even if they did, you might not want to weight "already voted" voters at 100%. There's some rate of ballot spoilage in mail voting (also in person, though less). And people could lie about already having voted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How polls handle people who have already voted is interesting. In theory, one could argue along these lines: people who say they've already voted should get weighted at 100%, while people who are merely "likely voters" should be 90% or whatever since some won't wind up voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, this presents challenges for likely voter models with early/mail voting being highly D-leaning this year. I can imagine various strategies that pollsters would adopt that could lead them to either underestimate or overestimate Democratic margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated