Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 29 13:34:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something to keep in mind: although debates can produce polling swings, those swings are sometimes temporary. In fact, our *forecast* will hedge against changes in our *polling averages*, which will dampen shifts in the candidates' win probabilities a bit. https://t.co/nVtlpQscbB https://t.co/Ad2VdFTWhP — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're doing pre/post-debate polls with @Ipsos this year! Here is the pre-debate version. We'll follow up with this same group of voters after the debate. — PolitiTweet.org

🚨Our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos pre-debate poll is live🚨 Top takeaway? Biden leads, but people largely think both candid… https://t.co/ilM83wzElQ

Posted Sept. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not a huge hedge, but it matters *some*. If e.g. Biden gains 4 points in our Florida polling average after the debate, the model would treat that as more like a 3 point gain for forecasting purposes. Biden would get full credit if he were able to sustain it after ~2 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 29, 2020 Hibernated