Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 22 15:26:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This rarely had much impact, but it did in Alabama, where Doug Jones's odds went *up* despite getting a bad poll this morning. We have now added some better logic so that this doesn't happen ... and Jones's odds are down from yesterday. https://t.co/HTB54qMxne https://t.co/vDc7xPeysM — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FYI, we were encountering some edge-cases in our Senate model where if a new poll came along in a race that hadn't been polled for a while, the model would sometimes reduce the amount of weight it applied to polls vs. fundamentals & other factors, which doesn't make much sense. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We put a lot of time into modeling races with runoffs. Here's what it says about the odds in the Georgia special election right now: Loeffler (R): 50% chance to eventually win the seat Collins (R): 31% Warnock (D): 16% Lieberman (D): 3% https://t.co/bZtICEpRsN https://t.co/qvBkAkvrbB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated