Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 18 23:12:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still no nonpartisan polls of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, which could be important under certain scenarios (e.g. if Biden wins Arizona but loses Pennsylvania). Another D internal was just published though showing it Biden +6. https://t.co/1aV5LyfBG0 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @conorsen @EconBerger One interesting theory is that house-district polls of the presidential race might be less subject to herding, because nobody gives a shit if you get the answer right (unless it's ME-2 or NE-2) so there are no perverse incentives. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We find that partisan polls exaggerate their party's standing by ~3 points in the presidential race on average, so our model will treat that more like a Biden +3, which is pretty close to our current forecast there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated