Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here's Biden's lead in our polling average and forecast, respectively, in the "Big 4" Midwestern / Rust Belt states: MI: +7.5 / +7.6 MN: +6.5 / +5.9 WI: +7.0 / +5.6 PA: +5.1 / +4.3 If Biden wins all 4 of these he wins the election, assuming nothing else too weird happens. — PolitiTweet.org