Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 1, 2021

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Wed Sep 09 17:32:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I talk a lot about how there's a lot of noise in polling averages and today was a good example of that. There were questions about why Biden was polling better in WI and PA. But today he got a great poll in PA and a perfectly fine but sort of meh one in WI. These things even out. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Marquette has Biden +4 in Wisconsin (that's without leaners; we'll use the version with leaners once it's available) which is ~the same as their last poll of the race. It does knock Biden down a bit from +7.5 to +7.0 in our Wisconsin average. https://t.co/C8GYebMykJ https://t.co/ln9vzswB5Q — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If we have ~6 states that are polled constantly, another ~6 polled somewhat frequently, plus national polls, and we can also slice and dice things along other dimensions (e.g. live-caller vs. online) that's a lot of opportunities to find patterns, but many will be spurious. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2020 Hibernated