Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Sep 07 22:55:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But FWIW, based on settings we chose 8 year ago that weight more recent quarters *slightly* more heavily, our model sees the economy as a roughly neutral factor for Trump. We also do not weight the economy very much, though, precisely because of specification issues like these. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To answer @paulkrugman's question: yeah, there's nowhere near enough data to know what a record decline in Q2 followed by a record rebound in Q3 is supposed to do to an incumbent's re-election chances. So be careful about confident proclamations about this. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

BTW, there's not just the question of how voters weigh Q3 relative to Q2, but also how they weigh Q1 and 2019, etc. If voters have a lagged time horizon, that is not necessarily bad for Trump. It could also mean they still give him credit for the pre-COVID economy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 7, 2020 Hibernated