Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 24, 2021

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Fri Sep 04 13:52:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is not really about prediction per se but about attribution. If, in 2044, some data journalist comes along and says "welp, in 2020, the economy went into a recession, and yet again the incumbent lost!" that will be a pretty absurd description of why Trump lost (if he loses). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Given rapid improvement in many economic indicators, and fairly high approval for Trump on the economy, the idea that Trump is doomed to lose because of the economy seems pretty miscast at this point. It really might be a *comparative* strength of his. https://t.co/BvgKvmTa3x https://t.co/kHR5xi7tPr — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a handful of polling firms (e.g. Trafalgar and Rasmussen) that rather explicitly operate on the premise other polls are skewed against Trump. Including them in your polling averages (as 538 does) means the averages *are* accounting for a smidgen of a "shy Trump" effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated