Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 15, 2021

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Wed Sep 02 12:51:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Zooming out a bit: being down 7 points nationally after your own convention is generally not a position anyone would want to be in, although with Trump's Electoral College edge, that likely translates to more like a 4-5 point deficit in swing states, awaiting more state polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It would also expect Trump to lose ~1 point of that bounce, in which case we'd be back to +8, although with economic data improving it still does expect some tightening down the stretch run. Overall, the outlook hasn't changed much (Trump ~30% to win). https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/qsTivJphCS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Electoral College component of this just can't be emphasized enough. If Trump's down 4-5 points in the tipping-point states, then just a *little* bit of tightening plus a small-ish polling error cold be enough to give him the win. That's where a lot of his 30% comes from. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated