Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 16:00:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These assumptions are *highly plausible*, but they are a long way from *proven*. It is easy to forget how little data we have to work with, including only a handful of presidential elections for which we have particularly robust state polling data. https://t.co/C1M0OsfzGz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm sure their authors would disagree, but we think some other models are closer to *conditional* predictions. IF certain assumptions about partisanship, how voters respond to economic conditions, etc., hold, then maybe then Biden has a 90% chance of winning instead our ~70%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Further, the map from 2000-2016 was unusually stable by historical standards. There have been SOME shifts (Ohio getting redder, Missouri getting bluer) but these are small in comparison to how much the map would typically change over 16 years. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated