Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 15, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 16:00:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This includes the possibility of clustered errors, where errors are based on demographic, political or geographical relationships between the states, or errors related to mail voting and COVID-19 prevalence. https://t.co/nVtlpQscbB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There is a long discussion about how we generate these maps in our methodology guide. Our model assumes that the majority of the error (something like 75%, although the amount varies over time) is correlated across states rather than applying to any one state individually. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In one sim, for example, the model might randomly draw a map where Biden underperforms its projections with college-educated voters but over-performs with Hispanics. In that case, might win AZ but not VA. Or, if Biden happens to win MO in one simulation, he'll often win KS too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated