Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 14, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 16:00:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

*Collectively*, the long tail of very weird 1-in-1,000 and 1-in-10,000 scenarios might have a 1-5% chance of occurring, or something on that order, depending on what your threshold is for "very weird", so a few of them will come up when we show a batch of 100 maps. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But it's important to keep in mind that if we happen to show a given map out of the sample of 100 the program randomly selects, that doesn't mean it has a 1 in 100 chance of occurring. The odds of that *exact* scenario might be 1 in 10,000 or 1 in a million, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There is a long discussion about how we generate these maps in our methodology guide. Our model assumes that the majority of the error (something like 75%, although the amount varies over time) is correlated across states rather than applying to any one state individually. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated