Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 31 21:46:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think people's intuitions get thrown off by the Electoral College. A 7-point lead in the popular vote (which our model thinks will tighten by another point or so) is decently robust even on Aug. 31. But it's more like a 4-point lead in the tipping point states, which is iffier. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To me, that seems pretty sensible. A 3-point forecasting error for an election that's still 2+ months away is going to be fairly common. There's a contingent on here that's like "why does 538's model show so much uncertainty!" but that doesn't seem like a ton of uncertainty IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There were many, many arguments about exactly where to draw these thresholds and what words to use. Anything in the ~70% range tends to be pretty tricky to convey, I think. — PolitiTweet.org

fwiw: The language schema we settled on for the forecast is ... ≥98: Trump/Biden is VERY LIKELY to win the electi… https://t.co/00aQoLili1

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated