Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 28 13:32:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, we're at a weird moment in the campaign and the conventional wisdom surrounding it. There is a perception that things are shifting toward Trump far more than there is much in the way of evidence to support that conclusion. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What we still do not have, unless I missed something, is *any* live-caller telephone national polls since the Democratic convention. Live-caller polls tend to show bigger swings ... so it's hard to come to too many conclusions about bounces from online polls alone. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are also constant admonitions not to count Trump out... but almost nobody is counting Trump out. I do think some of the non-538 models are overconfident on Biden, which is important in MY world but a pretty narrow category of election coverage overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated