Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, the Clinton stuff is sort of like superstition masquerading as empiricism. There is, obviously, nothing wrong with looking at past races to figure out how much polls might change. That's exactly what models do! But at least they're using 12-15 elections and not just 1. — PolitiTweet.org

I understand why people would compare Biden's current polling to Clinton's final polling, but I'll never really get… https://t.co/Omi0wpq4jD

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. The biggest tip-off that someone *thinks* they're following the science when they're *not* actually following the science is when they say "immunity only lasts 3 months!" which is a pretty incorrect & outdated caricature of what the best research now says. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IMO one of the biggest advantages of models is looking at the broader history of elections and not just the most recent or salient examples. There were decent precedents for how Biden won the D nomination (say, Clinton '92) for instance, but they weren't especially recent. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated