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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 01:51:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is pretty dishonest. Our current forecast is for Biden to win the popular vote by 6 points. 8 points (not 9) is his current lead in the polling average & the model expects the race to tighten. And our forecast has Biden winning by only 3-4 points in the tipping-point states. — PolitiTweet.org

G. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris

IMO this is pretty fundamentally irreconcilable 538, Aug 26 2016: Clinton +4, 18% other/undecided, 81% to win 538,… https://t.co/VbXUF2BHaN

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling I know the various ways that people can fuck up when building these forecasts, and I've fucked some of them up myself, so I can often look at a result and say "oops, there must be a bug there, or at least something that wasn't well considered", and more often than not, I'm right. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan He is talking about our forecast, because there are no probabilities associated with our polling average. But please post the strawman GIF again without bothering to make sure you got the details right. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated