Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 26 20:04:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's at only 55-60% to win in prediction markets, but 85-90% in other statistical models, which seems like an insanely wide spread—and I don't think either number is super easy to defend—so I have to say I'm pretty happy that 538 model's falls somewhere in the middle. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner But he probably is suffering a penalty for his COVID handling. People's default around the world seems to be to become more pro-incumbent under COVID. I do wonder what would happen if there were all the same policy failures but he came across more empathetically. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I think pretty demonstrably *doesn't* help Trump is a chaotic news cycle, even though he sometimes seems inclined to cultivate one. It would be more the sense that the country was "in recovery" / getting back to normal that would likely help him. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated