Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 26 15:37:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Are there actually pundits who say Trump can't win? — PolitiTweet.org

🚨 It feels like August of ‘16 all over again. Polls show Trump losing big. Pundits proclaim he can't win. Reporters… https://t.co/zw2yM1BrWC

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But in some ways, the Dem message *is* {gestures at everything} the news cycle. Everything feeling vaguely out of control may have helped Trump in 2016 by making it hard for Clinton to drive a message or leverage Obama's successes. It doesn't work great when you're the incumbent! — PolitiTweet.org

I don't disagree with this take per se, but the difference for the DNC was 2 hours a night of live broadcast + mass… https://t.co/7iIEwYZBHd

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would [gasp] dare say the conventional wisdom is fairly well-calibrated with reality this time around. Our model gives Trump a 30% chance of winning—which is pretty decent, but still makes him a nontrivial underdog—and I'd say the campaign is largely being covered that way too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated