Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 26 13:06:14 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The point is, ordinarily we have a pretty nice *mix* of online and live polls, and it would perhaps be especially important to have a good mix of live and online polls around the conventions, but we don't have that now. The live polls come in waves, and we're in a low ebb now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I am actually slightly more on the side of the live polls argument. I think partisan non-response bias can be a Thing, but also that the cures for it may be worse than the disease, and you may be trading Type I error for Type II error. But that's neither here nor there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At the same time, there was a smattering of pre-convention live-caller state polls that weren't spectacular for Biden either, such as his being "only" +4 in Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) and +4 in Wisconsin (Marquette) which were some pretty 2016-ish type numbers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated