Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 26 13:01:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Live polls would allege that online polls bake in too many assumptions about the electorate that can make them miss real change. They may also say polls are a snapshot of the electorate, so if one party's voters are more enthusiastic at any given time, they should reflect that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Simplifying a bit, but online polls would allege that live polls suffer from more partisan non-response bias (e.g. Democrats are more likely to pick up the phone if they're excited after their convention) and so undergo phantom swings. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I am actually slightly more on the side of the live polls argument. I think partisan non-response bias can be a Thing, but also that the cures for it may be worse than the disease, and you may be trading Type I error for Type II error. But that's neither here nor there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated