Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 26 12:54:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That matters more during the conventions than it might ordinarily, because online panel surveys tend to make assumptions that can flatten out bounces, whereas live-caller polls tend to show bigger swings after major events. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The BIG caveat is that this is not based on the world's most spectacular set of polling, especially at the state level. And almost of it is online panels, with a robopoll thrown in here and there; basically no live caller polls since the pre-convention round from ~10-14 days ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Simplifying a bit, but online polls would allege that live polls suffer from more partisan non-response bias (e.g. Democrats are more likely to pick up the phone if they're excited after their convention) and so undergo phantom swings. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated