Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 22 13:47:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But these "fundamentals" models have been terrible when used to actually predict elections when they didn't know the results in advance. Rather than using them, you literally would have been better off just guessing the election would be 50:50. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, rather than accepting some intrinsic degree of ambiguity and uncertainty, you can test out 300 different model specifications on a sample size of n=10 and find something that "fits" the data. And even manage to convince yourself that you've found a persuasive "story". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin I have complicated feelings on this. I kind of wonder if we presumed that people wouldn't put up with it, we might have made more progress on strategies like testing and tracing. Instead locking things down/keeping them closed response became the default response in blue states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated