Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 22 13:38:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1988? Bush going for a 3rd straight term for Republicans amid an average economy. VERY similar to 2000 and 2016, which were photo finishes. (Incumbent party lost the Electoral College but won the popular vote). No particular reason to expect a Bush landslide. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

See, this is why the "fundamentals" are kind of overrated. It's not at all obvious that they would have favored Bush in 1988 or Clinton in 1992 **unless you know the outcomes in advance**. — PolitiTweet.org

In both of these examples, the polls moved toward the fundamentals. The difference today is that the fundamentals a… https://t.co/GehJHR9nGC

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1992? The economy went into recession in 1990. But it ended by March 1991, and the economy was recovering, though slowly (especially in data published at the time vs. later revised). Bush was coming off the extremely popular Gulf War. Not at all obvious why he collapsed so badly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated