Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 20 15:37:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris The uncertainty on estimating either of the parameters you need (increase in turnout vs. increase in rejection rates) is quite large, especially given the somewhat sui generis event of an election in a pandemic, to the point where all we can usefully say is it ↑ uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while a partisan split in vote-by-mail increases *uncertainty*, it's hard to predict who might benefit from it on balance. If more D's are voting by mail, more D voters may have ballots rejected. But more R voters will have something come up on Election Day and fail to vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris *You* can say that but, again, I think you're overestimating the confidence which we can assess these factors ahead of time. In particular, estimates of how much VBM increaes turnout vary a great deal from one another, and there may be additional complications during a pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 20, 2020 Hibernated