Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 14 22:47:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @SethS_D I don't see how either of those things would do an adequate job of accounting for an economy that is projected to get sharply better, in a way that doesn't really resemble a normal recession. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @SethS_D Especially if you're going to heavily weight the prior, we think it is a pretty big mistake not account for expected changes in the economy given what 3Q GDP growth is expected to be. https://t.co/4a38UV7IQJ — PolitiTweet.org

On August 14, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q32020 is 26.2%. https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos… https://t.co/7aOzi6Rrwi

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @SethS_D We don't actually use GDP at all, in part because it updates quarterly and we want monthly metrics. Of the 6 components we use, one is already very GOOD for Trump (income, because of the CARES Act), two (stocks, inflation) are pretty good, and the other 3 are AWFUL but improving. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated