Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 19:29:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D Yes, I think it's extremely dangerous to think you know what direction the polls will be biased in, or that the biases will carry over in a hugely predictable way from election to election. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D But the broader question is: Do you think your model describes the real-world probability that Biden wins? (Assuming the election is not stolen, both candidates make it to election day etc.) Or is it some sort of conditional prediction? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D The convention bounce adjustments arguably are a bit hackish. But that's precisely why one needs to be wary of overconfident models! Models make lots of little hacks to improve in-sample fit that usually result in deterioration in out-of-sample performance! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated