Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethS_D @gelliottmorris Yeah, that's what gets me too. If you just say "let's just keep it sample and look at all the years where we have polling", you'd wind up with probabilities that look a lot like 538's. And I think that's an important sanity check. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's captured in head-to-head polls, though. And using a variable like approval ratings that is extremely collinear with head-to-head polls as a prior is likely to lead to some ugly model specifications that will be fragile out of sample. — PolitiTweet.org