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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 18:25:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris Talk about begging the question? Approval ratings are the dependent variable, more or less. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethS_D @gelliottmorris Yeah, that's what gets me too. If you just say "let's just keep it sample and look at all the years where we have polling", you'd wind up with probabilities that look a lot like 538's. And I think that's an important sanity check. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's captured in head-to-head polls, though. And using a variable like approval ratings that is extremely collinear with head-to-head polls as a prior is likely to lead to some ugly model specifications that will be fragile out of sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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