Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 18:22:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's somewhere around 11 points of vote share / 22 points of vote margin. It's high. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D That's sort of begging the question, though. We don't know what the rest of the cycle will look like. Polls were EXTREMELY stable in this year's D primary before they started to become EXTREMELY volatile. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethS_D @gelliottmorris Yeah, that's what gets me too. If you just say "let's just keep it sample and look at all the years where we have polling", you'd wind up with probabilities that look a lot like 538's. And I think that's an important sanity check. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated