Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 18:10:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris You're still not getting it. Given the nature of election data, you don't want do to too much optimization; that's how you wind up with an overconfident model. I don't really care that much what the model would have said in elections where I already know the answer. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris They do happen to improve performance in-sample! But in- sample doesn't matter very much when degrees of freedom far exceed the sample size. And there's no magic you can perform to turn in-sample into out-of-sample data, despite a lot of data science BS to the contrary. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris You're basically applying a lot of techniques that are (sometimes) appropriate for large data sets to a small data set and it's leading you down some weird paths. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated