Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 17:32:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @nataliemj10 On the contrary, it's much better to decide on your hypothesis ahead of time, rather than to test multitudes of hypotheses on small, noisy datasets with high covariance. Will yield much more honest assessments of uncertainty that won't deteriorate much in-sample to out-of-sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @nataliemj10 With small sample sizes and highly correlated variables, it is VERY hard to determine empirically which ones are most important, so it is usually a better strategy to create an index. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @nataliemj10 And in cases with small sample sizes and high complexity/ "researcher degrees of freedom", the only type of validation that matters anyway is in true prediction where you publish the forecasts ahead of time without knowing the results. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated