Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 05 17:58:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This year is forcing a lot of ad-hoc decisions for election modelers. One of them concerns the party conventions—our model traditionally makes a "convention bounce adjustment" which adjusts for the fact that a party's standing is typically inflated in polls after its convention… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

He Incorrectly Predicted That Trump Would Win The Popular Vote In 2016. But, Hey, Who Cares About Details Like That? https://t.co/FkWyWFcfAc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

…both parties have now scaled back their convention plans to the point where I don't think we can pretend its business as usual. So we'll probably apply 50% of the usual convention bounce adjustment. I wish there were a more empirical way to do this, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2020 Hibernated