Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Jul 30 17:19:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, if you ground your model in Real Disposable Income like some others do (e.g. the "Bread and Peace" model) you may have Trump winning in an epic landslide. Possibly the same if you use 3Q GDP (forecasted to be +15% annualized) instead of 2Q. https://t.co/ZX46iLJWCc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Offered as an illustration of the limits of "fundamentals"-based election models: The "Time for Change model", as specified here, predicts that Trump will lose the popular vote by ~36 points (not a typo) based on that 2Q GDP print. https://t.co/2dCpPFMItU — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It certainly helps to use a wider array of indicators over a longer time frame (that's what we do) but the notion that you can make a highly *precise* forecast from fundamentals alone in *this* economy just doesn't pass the smell test. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated