Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Jul 29 16:47:06 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. In polls like these, people sometimes aren't very good at predicting their own future behavior under what for now is a hypothetical scenario. So it might be good look at empirical rates of vaccination instead to predict what % will ultimately be vaccinated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. Headlines on polls like these can sometimes be misleading by treating "not sure" responses as "no". You'll have a poll result like e.g. 40% yes, 20% no, 40% "need to learn more", and the headline will frame it as "only 40% will get vaccinated!" when really it's 40-80%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

4. It seems likely to me that many activities will *require* a vaccine, including many schools and some employers. Also many leisure activities: Want to attend a Knicks game? Fly to Cancun? Enter a nursing home? Show proof of a vaccine or a recent negative test. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 29, 2020 Hibernated