Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 16:28:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our estimates also reflect changes in voting access laws since 2016. That helps Biden in states like Virginia, Michigan, Ohio and Arizona but hurts him in Iowa, Georgia, Texas and Maine, among others. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This ^^ is also an issue for techniques like MRP (in fact, even more so, since MRP generally uses just one pollster's data). Still, it's fun to look at and does have *some* predictive accuracy. Among other things, clear that CO and VA are pretty solidly into blue territory now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris No, it's absolutely right. You can try to true-up a pollster's estimates if you don't think they accurately reflect the population, I suppose. But it's much easier and more robust to use an average of different polls, which MRP doesn't permit unless you have all the microdata. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated