Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 16:21:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As you can see, this matches polling data well. Then again, it's supposed to do so. In fact one limitation of the this technique is that if there are biases in the polling (say, they underestimate Trump's standing with a certain group) they'll also be reflected in your estimates. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, here's a regression-based estimate of Biden's current standing in each state. This works by taking our state polling averages, and trying to figure out what differences there are from past elections based on regional or demographic variables (without overfitting the model). https://t.co/OEEGtBrQK6 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This ^^ is also an issue for techniques like MRP (in fact, even more so, since MRP generally uses just one pollster's data). Still, it's fun to look at and does have *some* predictive accuracy. Among other things, clear that CO and VA are pretty solidly into blue territory now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated