Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 14:13:14 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

i.e. Biden could do "surprisingly" well in Arizona, which has been hard-hit, but underperform in New Mexico, which hasn't been. Or he could do well in both the Northeast and the South (hardest-hit regions) but not gain as much in the Midwest and the West. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other factor to consider in how COVID could affect election forecasts is that variation in state COVID rates could conceivably be a factor in support (or lack thereof) for Trump, which could create some unusual correlations. https://t.co/MVZOD5xlnn — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model tries account for these correlations based on geographic and demographic factors. e.g., in some random number of simulations, Biden will do better than polls show among Hispanics or worse in the Midwest. So we'll add COVID to the list of factors that can create them. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated