Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 19:50:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For instance, in Utah if you don't get the right number of Mormons or a representative sample of Mormons, your poll is going to be screwed. But that won't affect your numbers as much in, say, Ohio. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not sure if people realize this, but empirically, states with diverse demographics are easier to poll than states where a large fraction of the population belong to just one or two groups. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since most swing states tend to have diverse-ish demographics that resemble the country in microcosm (though there are some exceptions like New Hampshire) that tends to make them easier to poll. This is also why national polls are usually more accurate than state polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated