Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 03:39:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other philosophical point here is that you have to decide whether your forecast is a conditional forecast (holds true given certain "reasonable" assumptions) or an unconditional one (holds true given "real world" uncertainties and perhaps even some "unknown unknowns"). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In terms of the magnitude, we're assuming that the additional error from bucket (2) will, on average, change the outcome in 1-2 states. But again, there will be occasional simulations where it will have a larger effect along with many others where it has little/no effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We try as much as possible to aim for *unconditional* forecasts, but of course there are some limits to this. We don't account for the chance that one candidate drops out, for instance. Our NBA playoff odds (pre-COVID) didn't account for the season being interrupted by COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated