Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Fri Jul 24 17:46:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The second, somewhat contradictory answer is that we shouldn't look at a vaccine as an inflection point but as part of a series of incremental improvements on a number of fronts that will take place (probably with speed bumps) over the next say two years. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good piece and I'm sort of torn between two answers. One is that the winter could be very tough, and if there isn't a vaccine that's fairly widely available by the spring, people are going to be ready to give up on most remaining lockdowns/distancing at that point. — PolitiTweet.org

NEW from me: What's the backup plan if there's no COVID-19 vaccine? There's good news on vaccines this week, but… https://t.co/ofDH4WekxM

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe these aren't necessarily contradictory. In practice, the improvement could be fairly incremental and linear. But either the arrival of a vaccine, or its failure to arrive, could lead to a nonlinear repricing of risk. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated