Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Thu Jul 23 12:56:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I don't know. Low-ish density + can do everything outdoors in the summer? I'll grant you it's all pretty complicated. But if you're building a mental model, this is one of the important factors. We KNOW it matters to some degree (i.e. in an SIR model) and it COULD matter more. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How big a factor is hard to say (see article below). And having had a bad past outbreak may make people more cautious, in addition to providing immunity to some percentage of the population. But, you cannot just ignore it when comparing regions. https://t.co/2YOsC0idji — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Estimates of the herd immunity threshold have a wide range, from as low as 20% to as high as 60-70%. Personally, I think the lower values are too optimistic. But 20% (likely more like 25% seroprevalence) in NYC *could* matter a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated