Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Wed Jul 22 19:51:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Today's the day when I finalize all the parameters in our model related to uncertainty and it always gets me in a mood. One thing it's important to bear in mind is probabilities get scrunched up once you get closer to 100% in ways that can conceal important practical differences. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner I mean, the Biden coalition is supposed to include some Obama-Trump voters (from the "white working class" and other groups) who have soured on the president. So that's basically mean-reversion, on an individual level. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For instance, a forecast saying there's an 85% chance of an event and a forecast saying there's 98% chance may sound similarly confident. But in the former case, the event will fail to occur around 1 in 6 times, while it's 1 in 50 times in the latter case. Big difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated