Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Sat Jul 18 21:07:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @Nate_Cohn @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 Notwithstanding that maximizing fit is not necessarily the best objective when n=18, there are some other issues with putting all your eggs in the polarization basket, among them that polarization ~linearly increases over the course of 1948-2016 and so is basically a time trend. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @Nate_Cohn @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 There's no such thing as out-of-sample if you know the results ahead of time. *Especially* not when n=18 and you're intimately familiar with the data and the entire data set influences the choices you consider for specifying your model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @Nate_Cohn @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 For example, it could be that polling gets more accurate over the course of say 1948-2012 but is now becoming less accurate again. That's also a plausible story that fits the data well but it has pretty different implications for 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated