Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Sat Jul 18 19:07:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @Nate_Cohn @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 A potential issue here is that "fundamentals" are subject to a large degree of overfitting on the post-WWII data so you probably either want to expand the sample or correct for that somehow. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plausible hypotheses: 1) New cases are among younger people 2) New cases are on average less severe (masks = lower viral loads?) 3) Cases are actually decreasing too, and the flatness is an artifact of the data (false positives?) 4) Reflects long-term patients being discharged — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @Nate_Cohn @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 If you have Biden at 99% to win the popular vote in July then I don't know that you've avoided it. That is very, very high. Even 90% (1 in 10) or 95% (1 in 20) would be quite radically different than 1 in 100. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated