Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Fri Jul 17 21:44:06 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At the risk of restarting the MRP wars: For the last 3 models I've designed (midterms, primaries, now revisiting stuff for the general) trying to impute how a state will vote based on its demographics & polls of voters in other states is only a mediocrely accurate method. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah, I have no way to assess those odds other than that people whom I might expect to be skeptical seem increasingly optimistic. I do think it'll take some time to get everyone vaccinated and that the first vaccine might not be the most effective one. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's a decent stand-in when you have few polls and weak priors. Our models do use it a little bit of it. But generally speaking, looking directly at the polls in a state is quite a bit more accurate. And often, so are simpler "fundamentals" methods (e.g. national polls + PVI). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated