Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 19, 2020

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Fri Jun 26 13:58:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, one of the lessons of the past few weeks might be: be careful with taking premature victory laps. We don't know where the NEXT spikes are going to come. Until we've made it through (at least) a year of this thing, avoid hasty conclusions on which states did best. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's a graph comparing current Rt to Trump's margin of victory in 2016. See a relationship? There is one, but it's weak and disappears once you account for weather and how many people had COVID before (the virus is spreading faster in places that weren't hit hard before). https://t.co/SdXe4IcgHZ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It certainly may be politically relevant, although the states with the biggest problems right now are really purple and not red. (If the takes were based on who is favored to in *2020*, it would look different). But these takes are not very rigorous as analysis of COVID itself. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 26, 2020 Hibernated