Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 17, 2020

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Tue Jun 23 13:26:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's one of those things where if it's true, it's pretty consequential (might mean that winning margins are only ~half as high today as the historical average), but it's not entirely clear that it's true (data is noisy)! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The idea that presidential elections are getting closer because of greater polarization is highly plausible but not proven. This chart shows polarization in Congress (via DW-Nominate) vs. the popular vote margin for the winning candidate in presidential elections since 1880. https://t.co/42wwhToq3U — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would note that even if it's true, it's likely a bit of a quirk that 4 of the past 5 elections (all bit 2008) have been *so* close. (A winning margin of <4 points.) A lot of midterm elections have been landslides during this time frame. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 23, 2020 Hibernated