Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 15, 2020

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Mon Jun 22 17:39:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The world is complicated. * Very likely that relaxation of distancing is contributing to COVID cases increasing * But there are many states/countries that where distancing is decreasing but cases are not increasing * Formal "opening" status is only loosely related to distancing — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliexdean Yeah, maybe looking at behaviors that directly get at nondistancing, e.g. restaurant reservations (although yes you can eat outside), movie theaters, might be better. I know some folks in NYC think that restaurant data and data on public transit use is at least reasonably useful. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Relatedly, I don't think there should be a lot of triumphalism over "see, we said cases would spike in [insert state] once it reopened" as those predictions often implied an IMMEDIATE spike in cases within 2-3 weeks of re-openings even though openings were initially very limited. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 22, 2020 Hibernated