Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu Jun 18 17:27:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Polls are adjusted in three ways. First, there's a likely voter adjustment. That is, polls of registered voters and all adults are translated to what we'd expect they'd say among likely voters. This helps Trump slightly, although there's likely not a huge RV vs. LV gap this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The trendline method is usually more aggressive, at least how we calculate it. This yields better projections at the end of the race, but it can be too "bouncy" earlier on. So we mostly use the averaging method now, but will mix in more of the trendline in October/November. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Next, there's a house effects adjustment. If polls consistently show good results for one candidate (i.e. a pollster always shows Biden doing 5 points better than other polls of the same state), then part of that house effect is corrected for. However, one needs to be careful... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated