Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu Jun 18 17:22:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As for how we calculate the average, there are basically two ways to do it. You can either take a moving average (like RCP) or fit a trendline (like HuffPo Pollster). Our method is basically a blend of the two, which is a bit more accurate than either method on its own. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Polls are weighed based on their sample size and their pollster ratings. We really do try to be as inclusive as possible, rather than having to make a lot of judgment calls about which polls we like. But there are an increasing number of edge cases so we do have some rules. https://t.co/N2myuKuxz9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The trendline method is usually more aggressive, at least how we calculate it. This yields better projections at the end of the race, but it can be too "bouncy" earlier on. So we mostly use the averaging method now, but will mix in more of the trendline in October/November. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated